Risk simulator
See the max drawdown your win rate, R:R and risk imply — know your expectancy before you trade it.
Math expectation?Computed from your numbers. It stays put when you hit 'Simulate again' — the simulation jumps around it.
Expectancy / trade?Average result per trade in R — the core edge.
Expectancy / trade, %?Average % of balance gained per trade (after commission).
Expectancy / trade, $
Profit factor?Gross profit ÷ gross loss. Above 1 = profitable; 1.5+ is solid.
Breakeven win rate?Win rate needed just to break even at this payoff. Your margin above it is the edge.
+11.7% vs your win rate
Full Kelly?Growth-optimal fraction to risk per trade. Aggressive — most traders use a fraction of it.
Half Kelly?A common, safer target: ~same growth with far less drawdown.
SQN?System Quality Number (Van Tharp): edge × √trades. 2.0+ average, 3.0+ excellent.
average
Edge ratio?Expectancy ÷ volatility per trade (a per-trade Sharpe). Higher = cleaner edge.
Expected return / run?Compounded expectancy over the trade count — the average the simulation varies around.
Expected longest losing streak?The typical longest run of losses over one period — plan psychologically for it.
Final balance
Profit
Return?Final profit as % of the starting balance (this run).
Max drawdown?Deepest drop from an equity peak during the run.
Trades
Equity curve (P&L)?The solid line is one random run; the dashed line is the math expectation (the average path). Real trading looks like the jagged line — not the smooth one.
Max drawdown over 500 random runs?Runs 500 random simulations to show the range of max drawdown you can expect.
Run 500 random simulations to see the drawdown you should expect.
Trade-by-trade table100
| # | Win/Loss | Risk | Pre-balance | P&L | After-balance | Drawdown | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1 | 1.00% | $100,000 | −$1,000 | $99,000 | -1.00% | $100,000 |
| 2 | −1 | 1.00% | $99,000 | −$990 | $98,010 | -1.99% | $100,000 |
| 3 | +1 | 1.00% | $98,010 | $1,960 | $99,970 | -0.03% | $100,000 |
| 4 | −1 | 1.00% | $99,970 | −$1,000 | $98,970 | -1.03% | $100,000 |
| 5 | +1 | 1.00% | $98,970 | $1,979 | $100,950 | 0.00% | $100,000 |
| 6 | −1 | 1.00% | $100,950 | −$1,009 | $99,940 | -1.00% | $100,950 |
| 7 | +1 | 1.00% | $99,940 | $1,999 | $101,939 | 0.00% | $100,950 |
| 8 | −1 | 1.00% | $101,939 | −$1,019 | $100,920 | -1.00% | $101,939 |
| 9 | +1 | 1.00% | $100,920 | $2,018 | $102,938 | 0.00% | $101,939 |
| 10 | −1 | 1.00% | $102,938 | −$1,029 | $101,909 | -1.00% | $102,938 |
| 11 | −1 | 1.00% | $101,909 | −$1,019 | $100,890 | -1.99% | $102,938 |
| 12 | +1 | 1.00% | $100,890 | $2,018 | $102,908 | -0.03% | $102,938 |
| 13 | −1 | 1.00% | $102,908 | −$1,029 | $101,878 | -1.03% | $102,938 |
| 14 | +1 | 1.00% | $101,878 | $2,038 | $103,916 | 0.00% | $102,938 |
| 15 | −1 | 1.00% | $103,916 | −$1,039 | $102,877 | -1.00% | $103,916 |
| 16 | +1 | 1.00% | $102,877 | $2,058 | $104,934 | 0.00% | $103,916 |
| 17 | −1 | 1.00% | $104,934 | −$1,049 | $103,885 | -1.00% | $104,934 |
| 18 | +1 | 1.00% | $103,885 | $2,078 | $105,963 | 0.00% | $104,934 |
| 19 | −1 | 1.00% | $105,963 | −$1,060 | $104,903 | -1.00% | $105,963 |
| 20 | +1 | 1.00% | $104,903 | $2,098 | $107,001 | 0.00% | $105,963 |
| 21 | −1 | 1.00% | $107,001 | −$1,070 | $105,931 | -1.00% | $107,001 |
| 22 | −1 | 1.00% | $105,931 | −$1,059 | $104,872 | -1.99% | $107,001 |
| 23 | +1 | 1.00% | $104,872 | $2,097 | $106,969 | -0.03% | $107,001 |
| 24 | −1 | 1.00% | $106,969 | −$1,070 | $105,900 | -1.03% | $107,001 |
| 25 | +1 | 1.00% | $105,900 | $2,118 | $108,018 | 0.00% | $107,001 |
| 26 | −1 | 1.00% | $108,018 | −$1,080 | $106,937 | -1.00% | $108,018 |
| 27 | +1 | 1.00% | $106,937 | $2,139 | $109,076 | 0.00% | $108,018 |
| 28 | −1 | 1.00% | $109,076 | −$1,091 | $107,985 | -1.00% | $109,076 |
| 29 | +1 | 1.00% | $107,985 | $2,160 | $110,145 | 0.00% | $109,076 |
| 30 | −1 | 1.00% | $110,145 | −$1,101 | $109,044 | -1.00% | $110,145 |
| 31 | −1 | 1.00% | $109,044 | −$1,090 | $107,953 | -1.99% | $110,145 |
| 32 | +1 | 1.00% | $107,953 | $2,159 | $110,112 | -0.03% | $110,145 |
| 33 | −1 | 1.00% | $110,112 | −$1,101 | $109,011 | -1.03% | $110,145 |
| 34 | +1 | 1.00% | $109,011 | $2,180 | $111,191 | 0.00% | $110,145 |
| 35 | −1 | 1.00% | $111,191 | −$1,112 | $110,080 | -1.00% | $111,191 |
| 36 | +1 | 1.00% | $110,080 | $2,202 | $112,281 | 0.00% | $111,191 |
| 37 | −1 | 1.00% | $112,281 | −$1,123 | $111,158 | -1.00% | $112,281 |
| 38 | +1 | 1.00% | $111,158 | $2,223 | $113,381 | 0.00% | $112,281 |
| 39 | −1 | 1.00% | $113,381 | −$1,134 | $112,248 | -1.00% | $113,381 |
| 40 | +1 | 1.00% | $112,248 | $2,245 | $114,493 | 0.00% | $113,381 |
| 41 | −1 | 1.00% | $114,493 | −$1,145 | $113,348 | -1.00% | $114,493 |
| 42 | −1 | 1.00% | $113,348 | −$1,133 | $112,214 | -1.99% | $114,493 |
| 43 | +1 | 1.00% | $112,214 | $2,244 | $114,458 | -0.03% | $114,493 |
| 44 | −1 | 1.00% | $114,458 | −$1,145 | $113,314 | -1.03% | $114,493 |
| 45 | +1 | 1.00% | $113,314 | $2,266 | $115,580 | 0.00% | $114,493 |
| 46 | −1 | 1.00% | $115,580 | −$1,156 | $114,424 | -1.00% | $115,580 |
| 47 | +1 | 1.00% | $114,424 | $2,288 | $116,713 | 0.00% | $115,580 |
| 48 | −1 | 1.00% | $116,713 | −$1,167 | $115,546 | -1.00% | $116,713 |
| 49 | +1 | 1.00% | $115,546 | $2,311 | $117,857 | 0.00% | $116,713 |
| 50 | −1 | 1.00% | $117,857 | −$1,179 | $116,678 | -1.00% | $117,857 |
| 51 | −1 | 1.00% | $116,678 | −$1,167 | $115,511 | -1.99% | $117,857 |
| 52 | +1 | 1.00% | $115,511 | $2,310 | $117,822 | -0.03% | $117,857 |
| 53 | −1 | 1.00% | $117,822 | −$1,178 | $116,643 | -1.03% | $117,857 |
| 54 | +1 | 1.00% | $116,643 | $2,333 | $118,976 | 0.00% | $117,857 |
| 55 | −1 | 1.00% | $118,976 | −$1,190 | $117,786 | -1.00% | $118,976 |
| 56 | +1 | 1.00% | $117,786 | $2,356 | $120,142 | 0.00% | $118,976 |
| 57 | −1 | 1.00% | $120,142 | −$1,201 | $118,941 | -1.00% | $120,142 |
| 58 | +1 | 1.00% | $118,941 | $2,379 | $121,320 | 0.00% | $120,142 |
| 59 | −1 | 1.00% | $121,320 | −$1,213 | $120,106 | -1.00% | $121,320 |
| 60 | +1 | 1.00% | $120,106 | $2,402 | $122,508 | 0.00% | $121,320 |
| 61 | −1 | 1.00% | $122,508 | −$1,225 | $121,283 | -1.00% | $122,508 |
| 62 | −1 | 1.00% | $121,283 | −$1,213 | $120,071 | -1.99% | $122,508 |
| 63 | +1 | 1.00% | $120,071 | $2,401 | $122,472 | -0.03% | $122,508 |
| 64 | −1 | 1.00% | $122,472 | −$1,225 | $121,247 | -1.03% | $122,508 |
| 65 | +1 | 1.00% | $121,247 | $2,425 | $123,672 | 0.00% | $122,508 |
| 66 | −1 | 1.00% | $123,672 | −$1,237 | $122,435 | -1.00% | $123,672 |
| 67 | +1 | 1.00% | $122,435 | $2,449 | $124,884 | 0.00% | $123,672 |
| 68 | −1 | 1.00% | $124,884 | −$1,249 | $123,635 | -1.00% | $124,884 |
| 69 | +1 | 1.00% | $123,635 | $2,473 | $126,108 | 0.00% | $124,884 |
| 70 | −1 | 1.00% | $126,108 | −$1,261 | $124,847 | -1.00% | $126,108 |
| 71 | −1 | 1.00% | $124,847 | −$1,248 | $123,598 | -1.99% | $126,108 |
| 72 | +1 | 1.00% | $123,598 | $2,472 | $126,070 | -0.03% | $126,108 |
| 73 | −1 | 1.00% | $126,070 | −$1,261 | $124,810 | -1.03% | $126,108 |
| 74 | +1 | 1.00% | $124,810 | $2,496 | $127,306 | 0.00% | $126,108 |
| 75 | −1 | 1.00% | $127,306 | −$1,273 | $126,033 | -1.00% | $127,306 |
| 76 | +1 | 1.00% | $126,033 | $2,521 | $128,554 | 0.00% | $127,306 |
| 77 | −1 | 1.00% | $128,554 | −$1,286 | $127,268 | -1.00% | $128,554 |
| 78 | +1 | 1.00% | $127,268 | $2,545 | $129,813 | 0.00% | $128,554 |
| 79 | −1 | 1.00% | $129,813 | −$1,298 | $128,515 | -1.00% | $129,813 |
| 80 | +1 | 1.00% | $128,515 | $2,570 | $131,086 | 0.00% | $129,813 |
| 81 | −1 | 1.00% | $131,086 | −$1,311 | $129,775 | -1.00% | $131,086 |
| 82 | −1 | 1.00% | $129,775 | −$1,298 | $128,477 | -1.99% | $131,086 |
| 83 | +1 | 1.00% | $128,477 | $2,570 | $131,046 | -0.03% | $131,086 |
| 84 | −1 | 1.00% | $131,046 | −$1,310 | $129,736 | -1.03% | $131,086 |
| 85 | +1 | 1.00% | $129,736 | $2,595 | $132,331 | 0.00% | $131,086 |
| 86 | −1 | 1.00% | $132,331 | −$1,323 | $131,007 | -1.00% | $132,331 |
| 87 | +1 | 1.00% | $131,007 | $2,620 | $133,628 | 0.00% | $132,331 |
| 88 | −1 | 1.00% | $133,628 | −$1,336 | $132,291 | -1.00% | $133,628 |
| 89 | +1 | 1.00% | $132,291 | $2,646 | $134,937 | 0.00% | $133,628 |
| 90 | −1 | 1.00% | $134,937 | −$1,349 | $133,588 | -1.00% | $134,937 |
| 91 | −1 | 1.00% | $133,588 | −$1,336 | $132,252 | -1.99% | $134,937 |
| 92 | +1 | 1.00% | $132,252 | $2,645 | $134,897 | -0.03% | $134,937 |
| 93 | −1 | 1.00% | $134,897 | −$1,349 | $133,548 | -1.03% | $134,937 |
| 94 | +1 | 1.00% | $133,548 | $2,671 | $136,219 | 0.00% | $134,937 |
| 95 | −1 | 1.00% | $136,219 | −$1,362 | $134,857 | -1.00% | $136,219 |
| 96 | +1 | 1.00% | $134,857 | $2,697 | $137,554 | 0.00% | $136,219 |
| 97 | −1 | 1.00% | $137,554 | −$1,376 | $136,178 | -1.00% | $137,554 |
| 98 | +1 | 1.00% | $136,178 | $2,724 | $138,902 | 0.00% | $137,554 |
| 99 | −1 | 1.00% | $138,902 | −$1,389 | $137,513 | -1.00% | $138,902 |
| 100 | +1 | 1.00% | $137,513 | $2,750 | $140,263 | 0.00% | $138,902 |
Compounding risk on current balance. Nothing is saved.
Compare the simulation to your real drawdown — connect your account.
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